Expert selection and betting tips for the 2022 US Open

The 2022 US Open Championship returns to the Brookline Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts, for the first time since 1988, with a packed field of 156 golfers vying for the top 60 spots to advance. 2011 US Open winner Rory McIlroy enters the weekend as the favorite after winning the RBC Canadian Open last weekend. McIlroy has to hit a tough field, including defending champion Jon Rahm, PGA Championship winner Justin Thomas and Masters winner Scottie Scheffler.

Where is the bet value? Will the favorites win? Our golf and betting experts break down the field for this year’s third major.

Go to a section:
The experts’ choice to win | Game value chooses to win | Remarkable golfers odds | Props and more


Expert selection

Matt Barrie, ESPN
Winner:
Rory McIlroy

Charlotte Gibson, ESPN.com
Winner: Will Zalatoris

Andy North, ESPN
Winner: Justin Thomas

Mark Schlabach, ESPN.com
Winner:
Shane Lowry

Marty Smith, ESPN
Winner:
Tony Finau

Curtis Strange, ESPN
Winner:
Cameron Smith

Wright Thompson, ESPN.com
Winner:
Dustin Johnson

Paolo Uggetti, ESPN.com
Winner:
Rory McIlroy

Tom VanHaaren, ESPN.com
Winner:
Rory McIlroy

Scott Van Pelt, ESPN
Winner:
Will Zalatoris

Kevin Van Valkenburg, ESPN.com
Winner:
Will Zalatoris

Josh Weinfuss, ESPN.com
Winner:
Scottie Scheffler


Game value chooses to win

Our betting experts give you the choice to win based on value. We look at the game board and tell you who has the best chance of redeeming your ticket.

Michael Collins, senior golf analyst at ESPN
Winner: Sam Burns (25-1)

Why he wins: Burns has three wins already this season and is hot with his last three starts. At 25-1, he has a lot of value in a stacked field.

Anita Marks, ESPN Game Analyst
Winner: Sungjae Im (40-1)

Why he wins: I play well on the big stage (T-2 and T-8 at the Masters, T-17 at the PGA Championship). He checks many of the boxes as he looks at the calculations needed to win at Brookline, ranked 29th in driving precision, seventh in greens in regulation and third in scrambling this season.

David Bearman, Deputy Head of Sports Betting, ESPN.com
Winner: Justin Thomas (11-1)

Why he wins: Thomas delivered another incredible performance last week in Canada with a 63-64 weekend to almost chase Rory McIlroy. He is third on the tour tee-to-green and shots scored overall, 6th on the approach and 14th off the tee. Thomas is without a doubt the hottest golfer on tour right now and finally got past the drought “other big” last month. No. 3 should be in the cards this weekend.

Chris Fallica, ESPN Game Analyst
Winner:
Dustin Johnson (40-1)

Why he wins: Johnson is a former US Open champion and has had a stretch of five top-six places in seven years. This course will require long, accurate tee play, and it’s right in the way of the DJ. He has not had the best years, but at this price he is definitely worth a game.

Tyler Fulghum, ESPN Game Analyst
Winner: Xander Schauffele (22-1)

Why he wins: Schauffele has never won a major, but has always been in contention at the US Open. He has played the event five times in his career and has a T-5, T-6, T-3, 5 and T-7. Schauffele always seems to play his best when conditions are most treacherous and the field is deepest. It’s time for X-Man to break through with his first big win.

Joe Fortenbaugh, ESPN game analyst
Winner: Shane Lowry (35-1)

Why he wins: Lowry just produced a T-10 in Canada to go with his T-3 placements on both the Masters and RBC Heritage and direct second place results on the Honda Classic. He currently ranks ninth on the tour in the kind achieved: approaching the green, which is integrated on a course like Brookline with stamp greens.


Odds of winning the 2022 US Open


Props and more

Our betting experts have more than just games to win. Here are some props to target for the entire event, from top 10s to cuts to tournament matches.

Dustin Johnson top-10 finish (+400)
Bearman: This selection is not about the LIV Tour, but about getting a 4-1 top-10 value on a former No. 1 player in the world, who has a strong summary of playing well on Northeast courses. He has six top 10s at the US Open, including a win in 2016. He has not been great this year at all, but if he brings the A-game and the golfers with a chip on his shoulder, this could be as good as 40 -1 payout to win.

Collin Morikawa top-10 finish (+175)
Bearman: I will play against Morikawa to win and the top 10, since he is without a doubt the tour’s leading ball attacker, and this course requires that kind of play. His fight has always been the putter, but Morikawa figured it out on the previous two majors. This course is tailored for a guy in fifth place on the approach and number 20 off the tee, and a third stage of grand slam is not excluded.

Bryson DeChambeau top-5 finish (+800)
Collins: DeChambeau is fresh and surprisingly under the radar this week. This is a “bang for the buck” game. He’s going to try to do what he did on Winged Foot to win the US Open.

Play-offs to decide the winner (+310)
Collins: Media members hate to hear the word playoffs in golf, but this week has all the potential for a three-to-four-man playoffs. Many boys look like their fights are peaking right now.

Xander Schauffele top-10 finish (+225)
Fallica: Although Schauffele has not broken through for a major championship victory, he has excelled on US Open courses. He has posted five top 10s in each of his five appearances, with three top-five. Schauffele is in seventh place in the strokes achieved: tee-to-green and ninth in the strokes achieved: overall. The well-rounded match should give another strong weekend in the US Open.

Viktor Hovland misses cut (+225)
Fallica:
Hovland has not had a top 20 in stroke play since March and has never finished in the top 10 in a major. He’s also terrible around the green – 204th place in strokes achieved around the green – and given the small size of these greens, it could create problems for him this weekend.

Max Homa top-20 finish (+160)
Brands: Homa’s first two tour winners were both on major quality courses in the championship. He T5 at Memorial – where he only needed 99 putts that week, and T-13 at the PGA Championships last month.

Adri Arnaus top-40 finish (2-1)
Brands:
Arnaus has the distance to compete this week. He has dominated the DP World Tour, completed the T-30 at the PGA Championship, and is the second best player from Spain, behind Jon Rahm.